"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything." Communist Tyrant Josef Stalin
Preliminary Aftermath New Hampshire Primary Analysis
February 1, 2000 NA (Network America) e-wire
Preliminary Aftermath New Hampshire Primary Analysis
Before getting into the New Hampshire Primary analysis, - on Feb. 1, 2000, day of the New Hampshire Primary, I spent a blitzing half hour on the show of that Radio Lady with the great name: Zoe Hieronimus, heard on AM Stations and the internet. When I went to her website (www.zohshow.com) to get her flagship station, which is 680 WCBM-AM in Baltimore Maryland, - I found out she is also heard in Chattahoochie, Fla; Americus, Ge; Murphysboro/Carbondale Illinois; Monroe, Louisiana; Nashua, N.H.; Shelby, N.C.; Raleigh, N.C.; Reno, Nevada; Williamsport, PA; Abbeville, S.C.; and Norfork, VA. WOW!!! - and all types of stations over the internet. ... Since being on the Zoe Show our Network America website has jumped almost 500 hits, which is almost 5% of all the hit we've received since re-animating the website in November, 1998. Incidentally, we have had over 2000 hits, counting the Zoe Show, since running our full page ad in USA Today in western, Iowa 3 days before the Iowa Caucus. Incidentally, one of our heros, Constitution Party candidate Howard Phillips, just happened to be the guest on the Zoe Show in the half hour following my interview. BIG THANKS, Zoe Hieronimus, helping us take a quantum leap forward in spreading the word for a return to honest elections, with citizen checks and balances, throughout the USA.
To the New Hampshire Primary:
With 70% of the vote counted by hand, we must assume that it would have been too dangerous for anyone to warp the vote NH Primary too much. If it's 5 points added to (elder) Bush and subtracted from Dole in 1988, that's possible. If it's shorting Pat Buchanan by 10 points in 1992 -- with the establishment aware that the Buchanan campaign had no effective ballot watching teams (none as far as we know) -- that's possible.
(Please remember that Buchanan and Bush started out with 49% to 49% in early count in 1992 and then Buchanan lost a few percentage points every few hours, while Bush held steady; VERY odd;. Then the next morning the New Hampshire establishment "found" 10,000 ballots, which caused Buchanan to 3% TO 37%, while President Bush held steady at 49%; VERY ODD!)
But it would be very risking to mess around with last night's numbers to get the results we see. Also, with all the talk about votescam in the "underground" press, it's possible that behind the scenes, even the establishment campaigns are threatening the Boards of Election in New Hampshire with close inspection. I personally heard a commentator sometimes see on FOX, a lawyer I believe named Ginsburg who was working for W. Bush, half jokingly tell the Story County Board of Elections head at the Ames, Iowa Straw Poll last August, 1999 - that W. Bush had the most annoying lawyers in the country, or something to that effect, if they suspect the computer program in an election has been manipulated (Ames, Iowa Straw Poll was counted by computer program). This was minutes after our group had grilled GOP Iowa State Head Kayne Robison before local and cable cameras -- until he said he wouldn't take any more "insulting" questions.
(In the big computer states, nobody has a chance to do any behind the scenes observing, and you can bet your bottom dollar none of these establishment candidate will go public with such a concern.)
So here are our main observations from New Hampshire Primary 2000:
1. The Democratic Primary doesn't mean a thing, but the establishment probably wants a fight as long as possible (which isn't long). They want this fight in both parties. But, the strategy of closing ranks early and front loading the primaries (which will be over March 7, 2000 for all intents and purposes), will backfire after March 7, as the two Major Party clones put the country to sleep. Into that vacuum will rush Pat Buchanan and maybe other third party candidates.
2. The TV Networks were careful to be careful. They did not call the GOP race for quite a while after the polls closed, as opposed to the instant call usually made -- and which "instant calls" we believe will be made again in the coming 100% computer counted states. Also, no percentages were predicted all night in New Hampshire, the networks not wanting to repeat the unanimous and embarrassing wrong call they made in 1996 (based on Voter News Service exit polls, which feeds ALL four, now all five, big TV Networks) when they called eventual Sen. Bob Smith the "loser" shortly after the polls closed. When all the handcounted votes came in, Smith actually won. This time they waited for the actual numbers. (Again, notice after New Hampshire if such reserve is shown by Network Anchors.)
3. The polls were very far off on the McCain vote. McCain had 49% late Tuesday, instead of the 37% to 41% projected. However, the projections on Bush (got about 31%, polls predicted 31% to 34%) and Forbes and Keyes were very close. (Forbes got 13% and had projected to get 14%, Keyes got 7% had been predicted at 8% to 10%. This goes to show that polls can be right - BUT ARE OFTEN OFF IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
4. Forbes was not Buchanan as a candidate, and apparantly Keyes simply cannot convince even his supporters that he has a chance to win. In 1996, the constant press propaganda that Buchanan wasn't a serious candidate in the early going had been buried by his New Hampshire Primary victory on Feb. 20, 1996. Forbes and Keyes could not do the same. And this leads us to -
5. The most depressing aspect of the night. The fact that the Big Media, with their brazen "two man race" propaganda, were able to stampede almost 80% of the New Hampshire voters to vote for two ZEROS, W. Bush and John McCain. Even with all the propaganda, the fact that Keyes didn't get at least 25% in a GOP Primary with his blazing rhetoric, is very depressing.
6. The Big Media kept up their "two man race only" propaganda by blacking out last night the speeches of Forbes, Keyes, and Bauer to their supporters. (Bauer, by the way, who got 1%, Bauer does not have the "command presence", as the military would say, to be taken seriously for President almost any field; this is not his fault, but it's a fact.) C-Span showed the speeches of Keyes, Bauer, and Forbes after midnight.
7. Final notes: numerous commentators, including Tim Russert and Larry King, asked with great urgency "when" we would "finally" see a two man debate between W. Bush and McCain. . . . If these Big Media commentators are waiting for such a debate between the two tongue-tied zeros, they are the only ones on the planet so waiting. Keyes did get a guest appearance on Fox's Hannity and Colmes after 11 PM, and (we hope) correctly said that he believed thousands of voters were now remorseful that they had voted for the "inevitable" Bush, instead of casting their vote for Keyes, who, he said, spoke what was in their heart. ... The two major party candidates will be BOUGHT and PAID FOR zeros. This opens up a tremendous opportunity for third Party candidates, especially Buchanan.
8. All who want to break up the two party duopoly must press two things; 1) decry the influence of the Big Media and destroy its credibility with the American people; 2) demand a hand count of paper ballots by the local citizens in each precinct in the 2000 election - short of which we will not accept the election results.
More to come on New Hampshire and Iowa. One thing coming is the WHY behind the reason the 5 Big TV Networks are pushing the 4 zeros, McCain, Bush, Bradley, and Gore.
Jim Condit Jr.
Director, Citizens for a Fair Vote Count
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