"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything." Communist Tyrant Josef Stalin
Pre-Election Polls 20% OFF on McCain's final total
February 2, 2000 NA (Network America) E-wire
Pre-Election Polls 20% OFF on McCain's final total
Yesterday our e-wire said, "The TV Networks were careful to be careful. They did not call the GOP race for quite a while after the polls closed, as opposed to the instant call usually made -- and which "instant calls" we believe will be made again in the coming 100% computer counted states."
In the above sentences, we should have said that the networks "did not call the DEMOCRATIC race for quite a while" - as they did call the GOP race at 7 PM as the polls close. It still holds true that the Networks did NOT call any percentages until the real numbers came in. Also, the final result between Gore and Bradley was 52% to 47%. Now, in years past the Big TV Networks called MANY elections, AS THE POLLS CLOSED, by a margin of as close as 51% to 49% --- when computers were counting the votes. Clearly the networks were gun-shy in this handcounted state - to call any percentages - or even call the race until about 9 PM - after a trend of real numbers were coming in.
On the basis of this, we must say that in New Hampshire there are so few polling places (I believe 600 or so) that Voter News Service could conceivably have exit pollers at 60 or even 100 of them, and therefore get an actual read if it is not a close race. Since McCain ended up beating Bush by 5 to 3 --- it must be conceded that the exit polls did allow the Networks to call such a wide margin accurately in this small state.
Remember, we do not hold that all elections are fixed - or that polls cannot possibly be right; what we do say is that in any given race, especially close races, pre-election public opinion polls can be way off (the pre-election polls on McCain's totals in NH last night were a FULL 20% off of the actual totals), and that exit polls can also be way off - witness the wrong call all four networks made in New Hampshire on Buchanan in the 1992 primary and Sen. Smith in the1996 general election.
Needless to say, in a computer generated state with no checks or balances - ANY close election could be tilted the other way, and even a not so close could be reversed. More tomorrow.
Jim Condit Jr.
Director, Citizens for a Fair Vote Count
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